August Tri-Valley Market Report: What July's Numbers Really Tell Us

There is a question I hear almost every week right now, from buyers and sellers alike: is the market slowing down, or is it just changing? The honest answer is both. Prices across the Tri-Valley are holding firm, yet homes are taking longer to sell and buyers finally have choices they have not had in years. Those two things sound contradictory, but together they describe a healthier, more balanced market than the one we lived through from 2021 to 2023.

Let me break down what July actually showed us, city by city, and what I would tell you if you were sitting across my desk deciding whether to make a move before the year ends.

Prices are steady, but there is no single Tri-Valley market

The median sale price for a single-family home across the Diablo Valley and Tri-Valley area came in at $1.66M in July, keeping us right in step with where we have been all year. What matters far more than that regional number is how differently each city is behaving.

Here is the July single-family picture:

• Dublin led the group with 13.9% year-over-year growth, reaching $1,702,000
• Livermore climbed 5.5% to $1,250,000
• Danville edged up 1.3% to $2,170,000
• San Ramon eased 3.2% to $1,647,500
• Alamo softened to $2,834,000, down 10%

That spread is the whole story. A price that feels like the top of the market in Livermore is the middle of the market in Danville. This is exactly why I tell clients that a headline number cannot price your home. Your city, your neighborhood, and often your specific street matter more than any regional average, and the price-per-square-foot data proves it: Pleasanton led the Tri-Valley at $809 per square foot in July, followed by Danville at $768 and San Ramon at $766, while Livermore came in at $665. Same region, very different math.

Why Dublin and Livermore are outperforming

The strength in Dublin and Livermore is not random, and understanding it helps you position a home correctly.

Dublin has been pulled upward for years by newer construction, transit-oriented growth around the West Dublin and Dublin/Pleasanton BART stations, and highly regarded school districts. Buyers relocating into the Bay Area who want modern floor plans and a shorter commute keep Dublin near the top of their list, and that steady demand shows up in the numbers.

Livermore rewards a different buyer. As California's oldest wine region, it offers space, a revitalized historic downtown, and a genuine lifestyle draw, usually at a lower price point than its Tri-Valley neighbors. For families willing to trade a slightly longer commute (many rely on the ACE train or the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station) for more home and land, Livermore delivers real value. That value proposition is exactly why it posted solid gains even in a higher-rate environment.

Buyers finally have breathing room

This is the real shift of 2026. For most of the past several years, buyers had almost nothing to choose from. That has changed. Active listings across the region reached 1,085 in July. That is below the 2025 peak, but dramatically more inventory than we carried during the frantic years of 2022 and 2023.

More homes means more time. Average days on market for single-family homes moved into the low-to-mid 30s across most Tri-Valley cities, a world away from the multiple-offer sprints of a few years ago. Homes are still selling, but buyers are touring more, thinking more, and negotiating with real confidence.

If you are a buyer, this is your moment, and the calendar is on your side. Fall is one of the most underrated windows of the year. Competing listings thin out, casual browsers disappear, and the buyers still shopping are the serious ones. With more inventory and less competition than spring, this is a rare stretch where you can negotiate from strength, ask for a rate buy-down or closing-cost credit, and actually take a beat before committing. My one caution: inventory typically tightens as we head into the holidays, so the window does not stay open forever.

Sellers, the market is still yours, but the rules have changed

Do not let longer timelines rattle you. The regional sale-to-list price ratio held right around 100% in July, which means well-priced homes are still closing at or very near asking. In several communities the numbers are even stronger. Moraga closed at 105% of list with a 71% overbid rate, and Alamo saw 47% of sales close above list.

But here is my honest advice, and I give it to every seller I sit down with: the era of naming an ambitious price and letting buyers fight it out is over. Today's buyers are educated, patient, and quick to move on. The homes winning right now are the ones priced correctly from day one and presented beautifully, from staging to photography to the very first showing. Overprice, and you invite a reduction later. And once a home lingers, it loses the momentum that produces your strongest offers. Getting the launch price right is the single most important decision you will make, and in this market it separates the homes that sell from the ones that sit.

What is driving all of this? Start with rates

None of this happens in a vacuum. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.67% as of mid-August, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates drifted higher through the summer on persistent inflation concerns, and they remain the biggest factor shaping affordability, especially in the entry-level and move-up segments where financing costs weigh heaviest.

There is a local wrinkle worth knowing. Bay Area inflation has resumed, running around 3.8% as regional home-price appreciation returned, according to US BLS data. When prices rise and borrowing stays expensive at the same time, buyers naturally slow down and get more deliberate. That is a healthy recalibration, not a warning sign.

A note on the luxury end

One pattern I see constantly on the ground: the upper tier of our market keeps outperforming. Higher-end buyers are far less dependent on financing, and many transact with cash, so rising rates simply do not hit them the way they hit a first-time buyer in Livermore. If you own a luxury home in Danville, Alamo, or the Lamorinda communities, you are playing a fundamentally different game, and your pricing and marketing strategy should reflect that. Priced right, well-positioned luxury homes are still moving quickly.

My bottom line heading into fall

This is the most balanced Tri-Valley market we have seen in years, and balance is genuinely good news. Buyers have real choices again without prices collapsing under sellers. If you are buying, this is your window to move with less pressure and more leverage. If you are selling, the opportunity is still very much here, but it rewards preparation, precise pricing, and strong presentation.

The right move always comes down to your city, your price point, and your timeline. If you are weighing a move this fall and want to understand what these numbers mean for your specific home or your search, let's talk through it together.

Ready to see where you stand? Reach out anytime for a personalized look at your neighborhood and a plan built around your goals.