2026 Mid-Year Tri-Valley Market Report: What the Data Actually Says

Every July I get some version of the same question: "Debi, is the market up or down?"

After twenty years selling homes here, and more than thirty years living in Livermore, I have learned that the honest answer is almost never one word. The first half of 2026 is a good example. Depending on which number you look at, you could argue the Bay Area market is cooling, holding steady, or quietly getting more competitive. All three would be partly true.

There is also a wrinkle specific to us. The Tri-Valley sits across two different counties, and this year those two counties are telling noticeably different stories. If you only read regional headlines, you will miss that entirely.

So let's look at what the data actually says.

Key Takeaways

The San Francisco Bay Area median price for an existing single-family home was $1,400,000 in June 2026, unchanged from June 2025. According to the California Association of REALTORS®, the Bay Area was the only major California region that did not post an annual price increase in June.

Sales activity is up, not down. Bay Area sales rose 7.8 percent year over year in June, per C.A.R.

Supply is the real story in California. Active listings across the state fell 10.4 percent from June 2025, the fifth straight month of annual declines, according to C.A.R.

Both of our counties tightened. Alameda County's Unsold Inventory Index fell to 1.9 months from 2.4 a year ago, and Contra Costa County's fell to 2.3 months from 3.2, per C.A.R.

The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.55 percent as of July 16, 2026, up from 6.49 percent the prior week and the highest weekly reading in nearly a year, but still below the 6.75 percent recorded a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Flat prices plus rising sales plus shrinking inventory is not a soft market. It is a market where pricing accuracy matters more than it did a year ago.

The headline number is the least useful number

According to C.A.R.'s June 2026 report, the statewide median price for an existing single-family home was $904,640, down 2.8 percent from May's record $930,260 but still 0.4 percent above June 2025.

C.A.R. was explicit about why the statewide figure dipped, and it is worth reading carefully. The association attributed the decline to which homes happened to close in June rather than to homes losing value across the board. Sales priced at a million dollars and above made up 36.9 percent of the market in June, down from a record 38.5 percent in May. When fewer expensive homes close in a given month, the median falls even if no individual home lost value.

This is the most misread statistic in real estate. A falling median does not mean your home is worth less. It means the composition of what sold changed. I bring this up because I have watched sellers talk themselves out of a good decision based on a number that was never describing their house in the first place.

Two counties, one valley

Here is the part that matters most locally, and the part almost no regional report addresses.

Pleasanton, Dublin, and Livermore sit in Alameda County. San Ramon and Danville sit in Contra Costa County. We think of the Tri-Valley as one place because it functions like one, with shared commute corridors, shared school districts, and buyers who tour all five cities in a single weekend. But the data gets reported along county lines, and in June 2026 those two lines diverged.

According to C.A.R.'s June 2026 county figures:

Alameda County posted a median of $1,325,000, up 0.3 percent from June 2025. Sales rose 1.5 percent year over year. The Unsold Inventory Index tightened to 1.9 months from 2.4 months a year ago. Median time on market was 13 days, down from 15.

Contra Costa County posted a median of $920,000, down 2.1 percent from June 2025. But sales jumped 13.4 percent, and the Unsold Inventory Index tightened sharply to 2.3 months from 3.2 months. Median time on market fell to 13 days from 17.

Read those two paragraphs again and you will see the tension. Contra Costa's median fell while its sales volume rose double digits and its available supply shrank by nearly a full month. That is not a weakening market. That is a market where a larger share of mid-priced homes changed hands, pulling the median down while competition for those homes increased.

Two things follow from this that are practical rather than academic.

First, if you own in San Ramon or Danville and you read "Contra Costa prices are down 2.1 percent," that headline is describing county-wide sales mix, not your neighborhood. Contra Costa County stretches from Danville to Antioch, and those are entirely different markets.

Second, the county median gap is one reason cross-county shopping in the Tri-Valley is so common. Buyers routinely compare a Pleasanton listing against a San Ramon listing, and the county-level medians do not translate cleanly to that comparison.

Why demand here has a floor

One reason I believe the Tri-Valley tends to hold up when broader Bay Area numbers wobble is that a meaningful share of local demand is not tied to tech hiring cycles.

According to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's January 2026 announcement, the Lab employs a workforce of nearly 9,000 people and had hired more than 1,000 employees since the beginning of 2025. LLNL was also named to Glassdoor's Best Places to Work list for 2026, ranking 12th among the 100 large U.S. employers on that list.

In my experience, that steady hiring translates into a consistent stream of relocating households with stable, long-horizon employment. It is not a boom, and I would not oversell it. But it is a source of buyer demand that does not evaporate when the stock market has a bad quarter, and it is one of the reasons I have never seen this valley behave like a purely cyclical market.

Our own Tri-Valley snapshot, and how to read it

Alongside C.A.R.'s county data, here is what I tracked across Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, and Danville in the first quarter of 2026:

Median sale price: $1,550,000
Average days on market: 28
List-to-sale ratio: 103 percent
Active listings: 102 or more at any given point during the quarter

A note on reading these against the county figures above, because the difference confuses people. My snapshot covers Q1, uses an average rather than a median for days on market, and is limited to five cities. C.A.R.'s 13-day figure is a June median across an entire county. Averages run higher than medians whenever a few slow listings sit on the market for months, and Q1 is seasonally slower than June. So 28 and 13 are not in conflict. They are two different measurements answering two slightly different questions.

The number I actually point clients to is the 103 percent. It means the average sale across our five cities closed at 103 percent of its list price in the first quarter. For context, C.A.R. reported the statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio at 100 percent in June 2026, compared with 99.3 percent in June 2025. The same caution applies here as it does above, since my figure is a five-city quarterly average and C.A.R.'s is a statewide monthly reading. Even allowing for that, the Tri-Valley continues to run ahead of the state, which is consistent with what I have seen here for most of the past two decades.

Rates: less drama than the headlines suggest

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.55 percent as of July 16, 2026, up from 6.49 percent the week before, and down from 6.75 percent a year earlier.

That reading was the highest weekly average in nearly a year, and it did generate headlines. I want to be straightforward about that rather than talk around it. But the useful context is not the weekly move. It is the range. Rates have traded within roughly a quarter point for months, and they remain below where they stood last July. Alongside the July 16 release, Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Sam Khater pointed to improving affordability and a national inventory picture that continues to expand, even as purchase applications have softened.

That national inventory picture is worth separating from ours, because they are moving in opposite directions. Nationally, supply is growing. In California, active listings have declined year over year for five consecutive months, and both of our counties have less inventory than they did last summer.

Which is why I no longer advise clients to wait for a dramatic rate drop, and I want to be precise about the reasoning. It is not because I expect prices to run away from them. Bay Area prices were flat year over year in June, so that argument does not hold this year. It is because local supply is shrinking. With active listings down 10.4 percent statewide and both of our counties tightening, the practical cost of waiting right now is fewer homes to choose from, not a higher price tag. That said, what any given rate means for your budget is a question for you and your lender, not for a market report.

What I am telling my clients right now

If you are selling: Buyers are moving quickly and there is less competing inventory than last summer, which works in your favor. But a median of 13 days in your county also means the market renders its verdict fast. Price to the comps and prepare the home properly, and you are well positioned. Price ahead of the comps and you will likely be reducing later from a weaker position, because buyers in a low-inventory market are watching days on market closely.

If you are buying: Fewer listings and faster sales mean less time to deliberate. Get fully underwritten before you tour, not after you find something you love. A pre-approval letter that is three months old is a liability when supply is this tight.

If you are simply watching: Nothing here suggests a crash or a windfall. It suggests a normalizing market with a persistent supply constraint. That is a market you can plan around, which is more than we could say for 2021.

Questions I Get Asked Most

Is the Bay Area market going down in 2026?

No, not by the measures that matter most. The Bay Area median was flat year over year in June 2026, at $1,400,000, while sales rose 7.8 percent and inventory tightened, according to C.A.R. Flat prices alongside rising demand and shrinking supply describe a stable market, not a declining one.

Why did Contra Costa County's median price fall while sales rose?

Because the median reflects which homes sold, not what each home is worth. A larger share of mid-priced sales pulls the median down. Contra Costa's sales rose 13.4 percent and its Unsold Inventory Index tightened from 3.2 to 2.3 months over the same period, per C.A.R., which points to stronger demand rather than weaker.

Does the county median tell me what my Tri-Valley home is worth?

Not really. Alameda County runs from Livermore to Oakland, and Contra Costa County runs from Danville to Antioch. Those counties contain many distinct markets. County medians are useful for spotting direction, not for valuing a specific home.

How fast are homes selling in the Tri-Valley?

Alameda and Contra Costa counties both posted a median of 13 days on market in June 2026, down from 15 and 17 days respectively a year earlier, according to C.A.R. Well-prepared homes are moving quickly in both counties.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying?

That is a personal financial decision, and I always recommend running the numbers with a lender first. What I can tell you is that rates have held in a fairly narrow range for months, and Freddie Mac's July 16, 2026 average of 6.55 percent remains below the 6.75 percent recorded a year earlier, even though it was the highest weekly reading in nearly a year. The real cost of waiting in this particular market is selection, since California inventory has been declining for five consecutive months.

Is now a good time to list my home in Livermore?

Inventory is tighter than last summer and buyers are active, which is generally favorable for sellers. But the right answer depends on your home, your timeline, and your equity position. That is worth a conversation.

Let's Talk About Your Home

Data can tell you where the market is heading. It cannot tell you what to do about your particular house, on your particular street, on your particular timeline.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in Livermore, Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, or Danville this year, I would be glad to walk through it with you.

Get in touch anytime. I am always happy to talk through where you stand and what your options look like.

Debi Bodan

REALTOR® | DRE #01776265

The McGuire Olson Real Estate Team | Compass

(925) 640-3778

Compass is a licensed real estate broker. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This material is not intended to solicit property already listed. Market data cited from the California Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as of the dates noted. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, tax, or legal advice. Equal Housing Opportunity.